Russia is bringing its collapse closer, continuing the war, Kuban, Belgorod region, Kursk region and other regions of the Russian Federation may try to become independent, political scientist Maxim Rozumny believes.

Crimea, Donbass, part of the Kherson region and Zaporozhye are not the first territories of Ukraine that Russia is trying to appropriate. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky reminded the world of this by signing a decree "On the territories of the Russian Federation historically inhabited by Ukrainians." The Ukrainian government was instructed by the president to develop an action plan to preserve the national identity of Ukrainians in Russia: in the Kuban, Starodubshchyna, Northern and Eastern Slobozhanshchyna (these are the modern Krasnodar Territory, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk and Rostov regions of the Russian Federation).

Political scientist, Doctor of Political Sciences, philosopher Maxim Rozumny told what Zelensky's "historical" decree was aimed at, whether Kyiv really claims Kursk, Bryansk, Voronezh and a number of other territories of the Russian Federation, why Russia got nervous because of Zelensky's initiative and why it is dangerous for Moscow, why the process of the collapse of the Russian Federation may begin, and why Kuban, Belgorod region and other regions of the Russian Federation may decide to go on a free voyage.

How expedient and timely do you consider such an initiative, how do you assess it? How necessary is it in the midst of the war?

The timeliness of this decree can be assessed precisely in the logic of war: it is an additional tool of ideological and psychological pressure on the enemy. And this definitely hurt the enemy, since Russia's reaction to this is very sharp.

In the current situation, this step made sense, because it added a new dimension and greater symmetry to our confrontation. After all, Russia constantly makes its claims against us, and Ukraine has always been on the defensive. And Zelensky's decree is about the oppression of Ukrainian communities and people of Ukrainian ethnic origin and their assimilation on the territory of the Russian Federation, which can be considered a certain symmetrical response to Russian pressure. In this sense, there is certainly logic.

If we talk about the real content of the president's initiative, our capabilities and the current situation, then this decree is unlikely to give impetus to changes in the practical plane and the solution of problems that are outlined in the decree. It is also unlikely that the situation of Ukrainian communities and Ukrainians in the Russian Federation will change after this.

This problem is very old, because Ukrainianism has been consistently destroyed in the Russian Federation for at least 20 years. Any Ukrainian institutions, any cultural institutions and the like are being destroyed. In particular, we remember how the Library of Ukrainian Literature in Moscow was destroyed back in the early 2000s. And now, during the war, even just calling yourself a Ukrainian and just speaking Ukrainian in Russia is dangerous.

What is written in the decree is apparently useful in the abstract or theoretical plane. But, firstly, it is unlikely to be implemented, and, secondly, it is unlikely to be effective. Rather, it is a symbolic gesture in the semantic space of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

That is, if the government begins to fulfill Zelensky's instructions, which are contained in the decree, most likely, this will not have practical consequences?

I think so. This policy will not be effective in the near future in the sense in which it is formulated in the decree. How will we protect the Ukrainian national ethnic minority in Russia from assimilation if we cannot protect our land from the Russian army? We are trying, trying, but so far these are some incomparable values.

Filing lawsuits against Russia for the fact that there are no Ukrainian schools in the Russian Federation, or for the fact that a significant part of people who have Ukrainian ethnic origin now identify themselves as ethnic Russians? It will also be very difficult to achieve any legal responsibility for Russia for this.

Rather, this is a reason for certain political statements, journalistic manifestations and speeches of the president. But in practical terms, these steps will either not exist, or they will be very insignificant.

Can Zelensky's decree be considered, as they shout in Russia, "Ukraine's territorial claims" to the Kuban, Belgorod region, and so on? All these lands are listed in the decree.

The list of lands is probably the most provocative part of this decree, because everything else has already been voiced and stated many times by various institutions, including at the state level, in particular, about the need for a symmetrical approach to ensuring the rights of ethnic minorities.

The presence of a list of specific territories in the executive order is an interesting twist that really has a resonance. Everything happens here, according to the Russian proverb "on a thief and the hat burns". That is, the Russians interpret this situation in their own logic: if they declare that the lands of the south or east of Ukraine were inhabited by people of Russian origin during the domination of the Russian Empire, then, in their opinion, this is a reason to send Russian troops there and take these territories from Ukraine.

In the modern world, not to mention its civilized part, for example, Europe, these are completely unrelated things. After all, there are ethnic lands, and there is the population of these lands, which has its own identity. And this is not a territorial claim – it is the subject of many years of disputes at the level of state institutions.

There is an eloquent example of the contradictions between Hungary and Romania regarding the rights of the Hungarian minority on the territory of Romania. But no one interprets this (at least not yet) as a territorial claim.

Therefore, the fact that the Russians immediately began to interpret this rather peaceful decree in the context of territorial claims rather than what is in their heads, rather than what is contained in this decree.

This hysteria on the part of Russia looks strange, because Moscow perfectly sees and understands the capabilities of Ukraine, understands that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not go to "liberate" these territories, that Kyiv will not claim its rights to these lands at the international level. Why this hysteria then? Is this topic dangerous for Russia even at the level of public discussion?

Yes, I agree with your last thesis about danger. This is a danger that appears in the rear of the Russian offensive against Ukrainian independence.

Firstly, this hysteria is absolutely in the spirit and context of the Russian narrative about the aggressive nature of the Kyiv regime, about the Nazis in power, about the existential threat to the "Russian world" and Russia as such from the West. And Ukraine is interpreted in Moscow as the vanguard of this new "crusade" against the "Russian world". That is, in the imagination of Russians, we have very large resources and are very aggressive, so everything can be expected from us.

Secondly, this hysteria is an opportunity to once again mobilize the Russian philistine with another threat. After all, consent to war and its support in Russian society are maintained due to the fact that some threats are constantly thrown in for Russia and the "Russian people". The Russians are constantly told that they are threatened by something from Ukraine, and therefore they need to fight against it. Anything can be considered a threat: gender-neutral toilets, missiles with nuclear warheads in the immediate vicinity of Moscow, and Kiev's territorial claims to Kuban, Rostov, Kursk and other regions of the Russian Federation. All this is perceived by Russians in one line.

However, this decree may have a specific effect when the processes of disintegration and degradation of statehood begin in Russia against the backdrop of socio-economic and political crises. In such a situation, certain local elites of the Russian regions mentioned by Zelensky may recall this decree, which will open up a certain space for their own game. That is, this decree will prompt the local elites to take some political and ideological steps. In this sense, there is indeed a certain danger for Russia.

Let's talk about the people living in the territories of Russia that are mentioned in the presidential decree. The decree says, in particular, that it is necessary to "develop an action plan to preserve the national identity of Ukrainians in Russia." From your point of view, are there people there who identify themselves as Ukrainians, or has Russian propaganda managed to "format" everyone into a typical Russian, and, therefore, there is nothing to keep there?

As for the "typical Russian", cultural, linguistic and religious unification, in fact, this is not the case in the modern Russian Federation. And Ukrainians there are not people with the most pronounced difference. After all, there are many Muslims, Turkic peoples, etc. in Russia, and against this background, Ukrainians are generally not much different from Russians in the understanding of Russian society. There is even such a concept as "Slavs", and it, in principle, is already beginning to be equated with "Russians". "Russians" there are considered to be everyone who has white skin and speaks Russian. In this sense, of course, the ethnicity of Ukrainians is under threat and is rapidly deteriorating.

But even this is not the main obstacle to the implementation of this decree today. First of all, in today's conditions, we are talking about national identification, that is, identification with Ukraine as it is today, from the point of view of Russia – nationalist and pro-Western. Such ideological and political positioning is unacceptable for the 90% or more ethnic Ukrainians living in this Russian territory. In other words, most of those who have Ukrainian ethnic origin and live in these territories are "patriots" of Russia.

I know this from my own experience, because I have many relatives living in the surrounding territories, in particular, in the Rostov region. In addition, sometime in 2004, together with Mykhailo Horyn (Ukrainian dissident and political prisoner – ed.) and the delegation of the World Coordinating Council traveled through all these territories and met with local organizations of Ukrainians. Then we saw that there was no indication that these people favored Ukraine and in any way condemned Russia's imperial pretensions. Basically, these people are oriented towards the imperial tradition and imperial policy of Russia. Sometimes they are even more imperial than ethnic Russians from Kostroma, Tver and other parts of the Russian Federation.

By the way, it is no secret that the south of Russia traditionally gave a very large percentage for the first openly fascist Russian party - the Liberal Democratic Party, that is, there was a large percentage of Zhirinovsky's supporters there.

So it is very difficult for us to count on anyone there today. It is unlikely that anyone there expects Ukraine to protect their ethnic rights.

And what can be the reaction of the West to such a decree by Zelensky? Will it be perceived there as an additional argument in favor of Ukraine, which will show that this is not the first time that our country has faced the fact that Russia is seizing Ukrainian territories? Or, on the contrary, can the West be afraid that Ukraine, having returned Crimea and Donbass, will subsequently set out to return other territories?

I think the reaction of the West will be closer to the second option. That is, this will arouse certain suspicions in the West, and not sympathy and support, because Western liberal democracies are very cautious and suspicious of any pedaling of the ethnic issue. There are certain reasons for this: throughout the twentieth century, very dramatic events took place in Europe related to the delimitation of ethnic territories.

Therefore, any hint that one country has an increased interest in the territory of another country on an ethnic basis will be perceived in the West with reservations.

Of course, we can justify ourselves by the fact that this decree does not deal with any territorial claims and political steps, but only with the protection of minorities, which is always perceived well and calmly in the West. But it is unlikely that we will receive any significant support and sympathy in this matter.

If Ukraine ever really sets itself the goal of returning these territories, then under what conditions will this be possible? Now, of course, it seems like a fantastic scenario, but still. If the disintegration of the Russian Federation is a prerequisite, how likely is it?

Today, the return of the Belgorod region, Voronezh region, Kuban, etc. as a political task does not look very realistic.

But, in general, if you think consistently, then there is a certain logic and regularity in this. If Russia continues to fight, its resources will quickly be exhausted. Already today, the National Welfare Fund of Russia is half empty.

By fighting, Russia will be exhausted, including demographically. As a result, socio-economic crises and further degradation of the regions will occur there. In particular, in the regions of the Russian Federation with a Turkic population, for example, in the Volga region and the Urals, the processes of distancing from Moscow are already ripening. If funding for these regions stops, then all this is quite likely. And the Turkic regions will cut off Siberia, where the main Russian resources are located. After that, there will be very few people who want to feed Moscow, and then people in the south of Russia will have a desire to decide their own fate. Under these conditions, there will be people who will remember their ties with Ukraine.

The only thing is that I am not at all sure that these regions will want to join Ukraine. More precisely, I am sure that they will not want it. Most likely, we can count on the creation of relatively friendly local autonomies, regimes, and so on there. In this sense, we need to work with the local elites now, so that they do not see Ukraine and relations with it as a threat to themselves and do not consider us their enemy, but, on the contrary, see this as a prospect, opportunities and a certain comfort.

It turns out that it is more likely that in the event of the collapse of the Russian Federation, there will be not "Belgorod-ours" or "Voronezh-ours", but the BNR and the Hungarian People's Republic, that is, the "Belgorod People's Republic" and the "Voronezh People's Republic"?

Yes. Rather, there will be a "South Russian Territory" and/or a "Great Kuban Republic", with which Ukraine will have friendly and special relations, at least for some indefinitely long transition period.